空拍機查緝建功 南市查獲停車場違法堆置事業廢棄物

摘錄自2019年11月18日自由時報台南報導

空拍機查緝環保案件建功!台南市環保局利用空拍機,查獲安南區某清除機構的停車場非法貯存廢鋁條、廢鋁類金屬下腳料等廢棄物。

環保局表示,南市諸多地點遭非法棄置廢棄物,該局使用空拍機等科學儀器蒐證,對於非法貯存或堆置事業廢棄物,近日大有斬獲。該局近日以航照圖初篩,再配合空拍機空拍結果,發現安南區某清除機構疑似非法貯存行為,隨即在近日派員至現場稽查。

稽查人員查獲該機構停車場違法貯放廢鋁條、廢鋁類金屬下腳料等,明顯未經核准即從事貯存行為,顯已違反廢棄物清理法第42條暨公民營廢棄物清除處理機構許可管理辦法第18條第1項規定,將據以告發,可處6000元以上300萬元以下罰鍰,並告知所屬清運車輛停車場不能另作它用。

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敢反抗開發就坐牢 原民反土地改革惡法 印尼動亂中媒體忽略的訴求

環境資訊中心外電;姜唯 翻譯;林大利 審校;稿源:Mongabay

9月下旬,印尼史上繼1998年獨裁者蘇哈托倒台以來最大規模的抗爭行動,佔據國際新聞版面。英國、美國]、和其他外國媒體頭條報導成千上萬民眾在全國各地大城市示威遊行,抗議婚前性行為納入刑法。

撤銷新刑法法條,包括不得侮辱總統和提供避孕資訊,只是抗議者的訴求之一。根據網上流傳的七點聲明,訴求還包括反對廢除一條弱化反貪腐機構的新法、停止蘇門答臘和婆羅洲的森林大火,以及從印尼東邊的巴布亞地區撤軍。印尼對分裂主義的軍事鎮壓行動已經進行了數十年。

撤銷土地利用新法也在訴求清單上。

這條尚未被媒體大幅報導,但觀察者表示,它的重要性不亞於其他幾乎立法完成的爭議性法案。

評論家說,該法案定義了新的罪行,並增加了刑罰,使當局更容易監禁抵抗開發商入侵的農村居民,使農業公司能保留土地特許經營權更長的時間。



印尼巴布亞省一條切開森林的公路,涉嫌剝奪了原住民的土地所有權。Nanang Sujana攝;來源:Mongabay。

在批評者眼中,最令人髮指的是,該法案設定了一個兩年期限,要求公民必須在期限內向政府註冊土地,否則土地將收歸國有,成為佐科威總統土地改革計畫的一部分重新分配,或授權私人公司使用。

但是,原住民尋求正式承認其土地就起碼要花兩年,通常還要更久,才能通過層層官僚關卡。因此,兩年期限對印尼弱勢的原住民權利來說更是一記沈重的打擊,印尼原住民組織「AMAN」副秘書長卡亞迪(Erasmus Cahyadi)說。

2013年印尼憲法法院作出歷史性裁決,駁回了州政府對原住民森林所有權的主張,此後總統佐科威陸續承認55個原住民群體對森林的權利,總面積達248平方公里(96平方英里)。但是AMAN說他們欲承認的原民土地有77,600平方公里(30,000平方英里),屬於704個原住民族。

AMAN法律與人權事務負責人穆罕默德(Arman Muhammad)說,該法案違反了憲法的精神。

印尼大學生走上雅加達街頭,反對新法律弱化反貪腐機構。Hans Nicholas Jong攝;來源:Mongabay。

該法案的支持者則認為,通過該法案對於佐科威的大型土地改革計畫來說是必要的。

佐科威於今年4月當選第二個五年任期,他已承諾賦予農村社區更大的權力,控制其21.7萬平方公里(84,000平方英里)的土地,但是實踐進度緩慢。

截至10月,控制該國約一半土地的環境和林業部僅分配了總計28,000平方公里的土地,遠低於目標127,000平方公里。

民主黨國會議員卡隆(Herman Khaeron):「土地改革計畫的土地很難找。」

為了解決這個問題,卡隆說,該法案要求建立一個新的機構,稱為土地管理署,負責收購、管理和分配兩年的時間內沒有被公民登記的土地,這些土地將自動收歸國有。

根據該法案,土地管理署將充當「土地銀行」,能夠透過租賃或出售土地產生收入,同時仍以非營利組織的形式運作。該機構必須保證為「社會利益」和「發展利益」提供土地。

法案的措詞含糊,批評者擔心該機構會將土地當作商品出售給強勢投資者,以犧牲普通市民為代價。

「誰將能夠使用這個土地銀行?小農嗎?當然不是,」印尼茂物農業研究所(Bogor Institute of Agriculture, IPB)人類生態學系研究員卡友諾(Eko Cahyono)說,「這個土地銀行將為有大量資本、企業和開發計畫的人服務。」

評論家說,該法案中的其他條款將使企業受益,傷害農村社區。

該法案將允許農業公司持有「HGU」耕種權許可證,有效期長達90年,而現行規定為60年。油棕公司可以拖更久的時間才將小農地釋出給當地社區。

此外,該法條還規定,凡訂定「引起土地糾紛之惡意協議」者,將被判處5至15年監禁,「妨礙土地機關僱員和/或執法人員執行任務」者可判處兩年監禁。

倡議組織土地改革聯盟(Consortium for Agrarian Reform, KPA)秘書長卡蒂卡(Dewi Kartika)向記者,根據後項條款,反抗土地掠奪的原住民、行動人士等人可被入罪。

「它賦予警察將任何人定罪的合法性。最極端的詮釋之下,可被用來逮捕任何人。例如,當居民試圖阻止他們的土地被用來建造機場時,就可能會被逮捕。」

成百上千的印尼村莊在和農業公司對抗時陷入困境,社區成員常常以肉身擋推土機,甚至縱火燒毀公司設備。

9月26日,一名21歲的大學生在蘇拉威西省東南部省會肯達里的大規模抗議活動中被警察槍殺。抗議活動演變成暴亂後,另一名19歲學生卡德哈維(Yusuf Qardhawi)因鈍器重創頭部而死亡。

「我們非常沮喪和失望,」參加抗議活動的社區組織者、23歲的馬斯庫里(Mando Maskuri)說,「國家應該保護人民,但他們卻在殺死人民。」

。與印尼其他地方一樣,當地人往往缺乏證明土地所有權的文件,這使得州政府很容易在未經他們同意的情況下引入企業投資者。

馬斯庫里說,許多旺尼居民嘗試向州政府登記其土地。但他擔心土地法案設定的時間表不切實際,最終導致居民失去土地,逼他們搬走。

大學生在肯達里用行動劇抗議礦場開發。Kamaruddin攝,來源:Mongabay

在9月抗議活動的高峰期,對土地法案和其他爭議性法案的審議被。跛鴨議會會期即將結束,新的議員宣誓就職。

現任議員在最後一刻同意將土地法案移交至新議會會期,這表示新任議員可以從同一階段繼續審議,不必從頭開始。

根據調查性新聞機構Tempo和非政府組織Auriga Nusantara的,接下來五年負責立法工作的575名議員中,將近一半是與至少1,016家企業有聯繫的商人,其中包括採礦公司和油棕公司。

佐科威總統說,他想,使之對投資者更加友善。許多觀察家表示,不少與已列入清單。

研究人員卡友諾說,如果議員試圖通過土地法案,反對者可以在最後一道關卡提出司法審查。

同時,馬斯庫里說他準備再次走上街頭,「如果議會要強行通過該法案,將面臨來自農民、漁民和民間社會團體的巨大阻力。」

Indonesia protests: Land bill at center of unrest by Basten Gokkon, Hans Nicholas Jong, Philip Jacobson on 3 November 2019

  • In recent weeks, Indonesia has seen its largest mass protests since the “people power” movement that forced President Suharto to step down in 1998.
  • Among a variety of pro-democracy demands, the protesters want lawmakers to scrap a controversial bill governing land use in the country.
  • The bill defines new crimes critics say could be used to imprison indigenous and other rural citizens for defending their lands against incursions by private companies.
  • It also sets a two-year deadline by which citizens must register their lands with the government, or else watch them pass into state control. Activists say the provision would deal a “knockout blow” to the nation’s indigenous rights movement.

JAKARTA — In late September, international news outlets caught flak for their coverage of Indonesia’s largest mass protests since the 1998 uprising that led to the fall of the dictator Suharto.

Headlines published by the , , and other foreign media implied the demonstrations, involving tens of thousands of people in major cities across the country, had arisen in response to a proposed new criminal code that would ban sex before marriage.

“I did not get tear-gassed so Australians could keep having sex in Bali,” one netizen on Twitter, among a barrage of reactions to the reductive reports. “This is about the future of the country.”

Scrapping the criminal code changes — which also include new penalties for insulting the president and providing information about contraception — was just one of the protesters’ demands, enumerated in a seven-point declaration that has circulated online. They also want the government to repeal a new law weakening the nation’s anti-corruption agency, stop forest fires in Sumatra and Borneo, and withdraw troops from Indonesia’s easternmost Papua region, where a military crackdown against separatists has been going on for decades.

Also on the list: scrap a proposed new law governing land use.

Though the land bill has gotten scant media coverage, observers say it is among the most potentially transformative of a raft of on the verge of being passed into law.

The bill defines new crimes and introduces increased penalties that, critics say, would make it easier for authorities to imprison rural citizens for defending their lands against incursions by developers. It would also allow plantation companies to retain vast land concessions for longer periods of time.

Most damningly in the eyes of critics, the bill sets a two-year deadline by which citizens must register their lands with the government, or else watch them pass into state control, where they could be redistributed as part of President Joko Widodo’s land reform program or licensed out to private firms.

But indigenous groups seeking formal recognition of their lands already spend at least that long, and often far longer, jumping through bureaucratic hoops. The two-year deadline would therefore constitute a “knockout blow” for the nation’s embattled indigenous rights movement, Erasmus Cahyadi, deputy secretary-general of AMAN, Indonesia’s main advocacy group for indigenous peoples, told Mongabay.

Since 2013, when a landmark Constitutional Court ruling struck down the state’s claim to indigenous peoples’ forests, President Joko Widodo has recognized the rights of 55 indigenous groups to forests spanning a total of 248 square kilometers (96 square miles). But AMAN says it has mapped more than 77,600 square kilometers (30,000 square miles) of land it says belongs to 704 indigenous communities.

“The bill is contrary to the spirit of the constitution,” said Arman Muhammad, AMAN’s law and human rights director.



University students protest the new corruption law in Jakarta. Image by Hans Nicholas Jong/Mongabay.

The bill’s supporters argue its passage is necessary to support President Widodo’s flagship land reform program.

Widodo, who was elected to a second five-year term in April, has promised to give rural communities greater control over 217,000 square kilometers (84,000 square miles) of land. But progress has been slow.

As of October, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, which controls around half of the nation’s land, had only distributed a total of 28,000 square kilometers (10,800 square miles), far short of its target of 127,000 square kilometers (49,000 square miles).

“It’s hard to find land for the agrarian reform [program],” Democrat Party lawmaker Herman Khaeron at a recent panel event in Jakarta.

To solve that, Herman said, the bill calls for the creation of a new body called the Land Management Agency to acquire, manage and distribute land that had gone unclaimed by citizens during the two-year window, that therefore automatically fell under state control.

The bill says the agency will function as a “land bank,” implying it will be able to generate an income from leasing or selling lands, while still operating as a “nonprofit,” according to the bill. The agency must guarantee the availability of land for “social interests” as well as “development interests.”

The language in the bill is vague, but critics fear the agency would treat land as a commodity to be sold to powerful investors at the expense of ordinary citizens.

“Who would be able to access this land bank? Small farmers? Of course not,” Eko Cahyono, a researcher in the Department of Human Ecology at the Bogor Institute of Agriculture (IPB), told Mongabay. “The ‘land bank’ would serve those with big capital, companies and development projects.”

Other provisions in the bill would benefit corporations at the expense of rural communities, critics say.

The bill would allow plantation companies to hold a right-to-cultivate permit, known as an HGU, for 90 years, up from 60 years under the current rules.

It would also let oil palm firms wait longer before providing smallholdings to local communities, a requirement under existing laws.

Furthermore, the legislation stipulates prison time of five to 15 years for anyone who makes an “evil agreement that gives rise to a land dispute,” and a jail term of two years for those who “obstruct an employee and/or law enforcement officer from carrying out tasks in the land sector.”

The latter provision could be used to “criminalize indigenous peoples, activists or anyone who tries to organize” against a land grab, Dewi Kartika, the secretary-general of the Consortium for Agrarian Reform (KPA), an advocacy group, reporters in Jakarta recently.

“It grants the police legal legitimacy to criminalize anyone,” she said. “Of course this will be interpreted to the maximum extent possible, to freely arrest anyone. For example, if residents try to stand in the way of their land being used to build an airport.”

Hundreds, if not thousands, of Indonesian villages are embroiled in conflict with natural resources firm, with community members often resorting to physically blocking bulldozers or even setting fire to company facilities.

On Sept. 26, a 21-year-old college student in Kendari, the capital of Southeast Sulawesi province and one of the cities where mass protests took place in September, was shot dead by police. Another student in Kendari, 19-year-old Yusuf Qardhawi, died of blunt-force head injuries after a protest turned into a violent riot.

“We were all so upset and disappointed,” Mando Maskuri, 23, a community organizer who joined the protests in Kendari, told Mongabay. “The state is supposed to protect us, but they’re killing us.”

Residents of Mando’s home island of Wawonii are with mining firms that hold permits to operate on their lands. As elsewhere in Indonesia, locals tend to lack documents backing their land claims, making it easy for the state to bring in corporate investors without their consent.

Many people in Wawonii are trying to register their lands with the state, Mando said. But he fears the land bill sets an unrealistic timeline that will eventually cause residents to lose their lands, forcing them to migrate to other parts of the country.



Students in Kendari stage a mock burial in early 2019 to express their opposition to the mining in Wawonii. Image by Kamaruddin for Mongabay.

At the height of the protests in September, deliberations on the land bill and other controversial legislation were . The lame-duck parliament was nearing the end of its session. New lawmakers have since been sworn in.

In their final hour, however, the previous lawmakers agreed to “carry over” the land bill to the current parliament session, meaning deliberations can be resumed from the same stage by the new batch of legislators, rather than having to start all over again.

Nearly half of the 575 lawmakers for the next five years are businesspeople who are affiliated with at least 1,016 companies, including mining and oil palm, according to an by investigative journalism outlet Tempo and Auriga Nusantara, an NGO.

President Widodo says he wants to to make them friendlier to investors; many observers have said are on the list.

If lawmakers try to pass the land bill, opponents could file a judicial review in a last-ditch attempt to oppose it, said Eko, the researcher.

In the meantime, Mando says he is ready to take to the streets again.

“If parliament tries to pass the bill, there will be massive resistance from farmers, fishermen, and civil society groups,” he said.

※ 全文及圖片詳見:

作者

如果有一件事是重要的,如果能為孩子實現一個願望,那就是人類與大自然和諧共存。

於特有生物研究保育中心服務,小鳥和棲地是主要的研究對象。是龜毛的讀者,認為龜毛是探索世界的美德。

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南投監測工廠排廢氣 陸空雙管齊下

摘錄自2019年11月22日自由時報南投報導

南投縣環保局為遏止工廠偷排廢氣,降低空氣污染,運用「無人機攜帶攝影機」或「紅外線熱顯像儀」巡查,並於南崗工業區制高點裝設監視器。陸空雙管齊下監測,全天候、全方位掌握工廠排煙狀況。

環保局指出,監視器易有監測死角或距離較遠,出現難以判斷舉證情形,該局再輔以空拍機(UAV)攜帶攝影機或紅外線熱顯像儀,進行機動式污染監測,直接於工廠上方進行蒐證,有效判斷污染排放源,已執行六架次無人機空拍作業。

透過監視器及空拍機雙管齊下交互監測、蒐證,查獲金屬鑄造業及食品油炸業等四家工廠有排放廢氣情形,其中兩家未設置有效處理空氣污染物防制設備,將依違反空污法開罰十萬元。

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後龍沙灘發現死亡鯨豚 確認為瀕絕江豚

摘錄自2019年11月23日自由時報苗栗報導

海巡署中部分署第四巡防區指揮部昨天(22日)上午10點多,接獲民眾通報,指苗栗縣後龍鎮海寶溝岸際沙灘有一隻鯨豚擱淺,海巡官兵前往發現該隻鯨豚已明顯死亡,經與中華鯨豚協會聯繫,確認為瀕臨絕種的保育類動物「江豚」,經協會人員部分採樣後,由海巡官兵將江豚就地掩埋處理。

第四巡防區指揮部接獲民眾通報後,旋即通知外埔安檢所前往確認,安檢所小隊長張伯睿到場後發現該鯨豚已明顯死亡,經丈量該死亡鯨豚長約210公分、寬40公分,惟考量其為保育類動物,仍派員維護現場狀況,並將該死亡鯨豚照片傳送至中華鯨豚協會辨識並請派員到場協處。

中華鯨豚協會專員郭祥廈抵達,確認死亡鯨豚品種為江豚,並指出,全世界數量僅剩1000隻左右,在國內屬瀕臨絕種保育類動物,是非常少見品種;郭祥廈初步研判,這隻江豚在海上死亡,死因疑似季節轉換及氣候變遷導致,因豚體已些許腐爛,僅部分採樣帶回研究。

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全港未規劃發展棕地達700公頃 逾二成具高潛力建屋

摘錄自2019年11月22日香港經濟日報報導

香港規劃署花逾二年半進行的《新界棕地使用及作業現況研究》結果出爐,有營運棕地主要於新界西北,當中未有納入規劃發展的棕地約700公頃,逾二成具高發展潛力,分佈於錦田、藍地等。

規劃署向立法會呈交文件,透過問卷及實地觀察進行棕地研究,最終識辦全港現有約1,414公頃有作業營運的棕地,以及165公頃沒有營運的棕地,有營運的棕地主要位於新界西北和新界東北。                  

按全數棕地計,當中有653公頃劃入新發展區或具發展潛力地區項目作發展及重新規劃,計及約150公頃棕地已分別規劃作政府目或私人倡議發展項目內,即全港約51%棕地處發展中。其餘約5%涉76公頃屬保育地帶範圍,意味餘下達700公頃是未有發展計劃棕地,佔全港約44%。

規劃署以策略位置、交通接駁及棕地群面積,將未發展棕地粗略分類,初步估計具高發展潛力棕地有23%涉160公頃,主要分佈在元朗錦田沙埔村、十八鄉、屏山,屯門藍地及大埔泰亨等。而有4成(290公頃)為中等發展潛力, 集中於元朗牛潭尾及流浮山等。

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市議員要求加速污水接管率 縮短城鄉差距

摘錄自2019年11月26日中時電子報報導

台中市議員陳廷秀26日於市議會都發建設水利委員會業務質詢時指出,台中市污水接管率目前接管戶大約是17萬戶左右,未來要增加到35萬戶,台中市的「污水下水道倍增計畫」要在短短6、7年內倍增,全力推動污水下水道建設。

陳廷秀指出,台灣下水道的污水下水道是將各類廢水匯集至污水處理廠,經去污、消毒等淨化程序後,回歸河川、海洋或成為可永續循環的再生水資源,為城市永續發展的基礎建設,及衡量都市現代化程度的重要指標。污水下水道建設不僅能改善都市環境衛生、提高人民生活品質,更可避免污染我們賴以為生的水源。希望透過提早指定新建物污水排放方向,從源頭管制,提升污水用戶接管效率。

范水利局長范世億指出,地區要有專用排放污水的排放管,確定污水排放去處,除了原台中縣用戶接管率偏低、水資中心用地取得不易、臺中市人口全國第二高需接戶數較其他縣市多,最主要還是後巷違建阻礙用戶接管施工空間;未來應優先針對防火間隔(巷)既存違建,倘妨礙用戶接管施工,依公共衛生及安全查報拆除,以加速提升用戶接管率。

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立院協商前夕 大學生夜洗街道 留「礦業改革」大字籲修法

整理:鄒敏惠(環境資訊中心記者)

國民黨總統候選人韓國瑜27日到宜蘭縣農會參與「百工百業」座談會,談到能源議題,他說,選上一定會重啟核四,政策絕無含糊空間。

韓國瑜說,公投600多萬民眾已經表達過意見,希望能夠以核養綠,只要人民同意,安全沒有問題,他當總統,一定會重啟核四,絕無含糊空間,不打迷糊仗。

韓國瑜說,而且今天(27日)又看到新聞,台中火力發電廠又開兩個機組,台中、彰化、苗栗、南投的鄉親真是辛苦,那個肺受不了,台灣的肺腺癌發生率已經全亞洲第二名。

韓國瑜說,意外災難很讓人難過,但大家知道嗎?不知不覺台灣每一年一萬多人死於肺腺癌,是靜悄悄的死亡,大家沒有感覺到,現在一直不停的燒煤炭,這不是負責任的能源政策。

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中國發布年度氣候報告:基本扭轉二氧化碳排放快速增長局面

摘錄自2019年11月27日香港 01 報導

國務院新聞辦公室27日舉行記者會,發布《中國應對氣候變化(台:氣候變遷)的政策與行動2019年度報告》。這項工作是從2009年開始,至今已經連續發布了10年,今年是第11年。

據生態環境部介紹,經初步核算,2018年中國單位國內生產總值(GDP)二氧化碳排放下降4.0%,比2005年累計下降45.8%,相當於減排52.6億噸二氧化碳,非化石能源占能源消費總量比重達到14.3%,基本扭轉了二氧化碳排放快速增長的局面。

生態環境部副部長趙英民表示,下一步將堅定實施積極應對氣候變化國家戰略,有效控制溫室氣體排放,主動適應氣候變化影響,推進綠色低碳發展,積極參與全球氣候治理。

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2020年代中期 再生能源將取代燃煤成發電主力 | 解讀《 2019年世界能源展望》報告3/3

環境資訊中心外電;姜唯 翻譯;林大利 審校;稿源:Carbon Brief 前言:國際能源署(IEA)2019年《世界能源展望》報告達810頁,其特點在於描繪出「承諾政策情境」(Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS),反映政府已經說出口的政策的效果。相對地,報告的「永續發展情境」(Sustainable Development Scenario, SDS)描繪出更積極朝向友善氣候的條件,若在此情境下,全球升溫有50%機率限制在1.65°C之內。


太陽光電板設置作業。照片來源:

超大型太陽能?

()根據IEA的STEPS情境,到2020年代中期,再生能源將取代煤炭成為最大的電力來源。到2040年,低碳能源將滿足全世界一半以上的電力需求,在SDS情境中甚至達到85%。

(不過,值得重申的是,今日電力僅佔總能源消耗的1/5,到2040年,這個數字在STEPS中將上升到24%,在SDS中將上升到31%。這是僅靠再生能源無法解決氣候挑戰的諸多原因之一。)

值得注意的是,今年的STEPS中,再生能源的前景大幅提高,2040年的太陽能總量提高了23%,風能提高了11%。非水電再生能源的增加了8%(下圖中的紅線),在2030年代後期超過了煤炭。

再生能源產量的成長大部分被增加的需求用掉,表示其他來源的發電相對不受影響。Carbon Brief的分析顯示,相對於去年的展望報告,2040年需求成長主要來自於2018基準年的需求增加,年複合成長率為2%。

各種能源全球發電量(十億度,TWh,即太瓦時)。 WEO 2019的歷史資料和STEPS以實線標示,WEO 2018以虛線標示。資料來源:國際能源署《 2019年世界能源展望》及上一版。Carbon Brief用Highcharts繪製。

WEO解釋:

由於成本持續降低,太陽光電成為2020年中國和印度最具競爭力的電力來源。到2030年,太陽能在歐盟和美國與其他能源的差距將大大縮小。在STEPS之下,2018年到2030年全球太陽光電的平均成本(均化成本)下降了約50%。

此外WEO強調,風能和太陽能的成本下降使「直接從煤炭轉往再生能源有更堅強的經濟理由」,而不是將天然氣當作通往低碳能源的過渡能源。

它還提到,美國新公布的海上風電競標,歐盟各地的競標價格低於預期,中國再生能源零補貼的趨勢也有所減弱。

IEA最近發表了一份關於海上風電前景的深度探討報告。IEA認為海上風電的技術潛力可滿足當今電力需求的好幾倍,成本更將在十年內與化石燃料相當。

IEA表示,隨著風能和太陽能在電力領域的發展,將面臨越來越多的挑戰:「政策制定者和監管機構必須迅速採取行動,以跟上技術變革的步伐和不斷成長的需求,以確保電力系統的靈活運作。」

太陽能傳說

儘管如前所述,今年的STEPS大幅上修2040年太陽能產出,但與其他預測相比,IEA對該技術的展望相對保守。

IEA對太陽能前景的預測受到許多批評。如下一個圖表的藍色色塊,IEA連續好幾個版本的前景報告上修太陽能容量成長。

(請注意,圖表顯示的是扣除退役後的淨增加。由於絕大多數太陽能容量的增加發生在近期,因此最初期可以忽略不計。IEA假設到2040年將有298GW的太陽能容量退役,也就是說在2030年代和之後,實際增加量會增加,而不是像下面的淨增加量表所示的那樣相對平穩。)

全世界太陽能年淨增加量(百萬瓩,GW)。紅色表示2019年的歷史資料和預估,而藍色表示各版本WEO的中心觀點預測。 WEO 2019 STEPS以黑色標示。資料來源:國際能源署《 2019年世界能源展望》和該報告的過去版本。Carbon Brief使用Highcharts繪製。

IEA將這些連續上修歸因於政府政策隨時間變化,尤其是中國的變化,中國是世界上最大的太陽能市場。

IEA解釋,繼2018年太陽能增長略顯疲軟後,「重新加速年度太陽能佈署,並加大力道確保將太陽能所發電力穩定進入電力系統,對於實現氣候目標和其他永續發展目標至關重要」 。

IEA相對保守的太陽能前景預測似乎部分取決於其對各種發電技術的標準加權平均資本成本的計算,視每個國家的發展階段,設定在7%到8%。

正如IEA對海上風電所做的估算,這可能對特定計畫的均化電力成本(LCOE)產生非常大的影響。 (歐洲海上風電的實際資本成本已接近4%,足以將其LCOE從每千度(MWh)140美元左右降低到100美元。)

另一個因素可能是IEA將重點放在系統「價值」上,而不是前期成本。IEA在WEO 2018發展出的「VALCOE」指標是這麼說明的。

IEA表示,降低成本並不保證能維持競爭力,「因為隨著其發電比例的增加,太陽能的系統價值相對於系統平均值而言往往會下降」。

因為太陽能輸出集中在每天中午時段,容量增加使供電增加,也部分影響了既有太陽能板創造的電價。

有些預測報告同樣考慮了這些因素,卻看好太陽能發電量的增長。到2040年,IEA的STEPS之下每年新增的太陽能不足140GW,而彭博新能源基金會(BloombergNEF)的新能源展望報告則認為,屆時新增的太陽能將超過300GW。這個數字與IEA的SDS中的佈署相同。

彭博新能源基金會還更看好風電容量的增長,預測到2050年,煤炭的電力輸出將下降一半,而非像IEA STEPS所預測的保持穩定。(系列專文3/3)

‘Profound shifts’ underway in energy system, says IEA World Energy Outlook (3/3) by Simon Evans

Supersized solar?

Elsewhere in the electricity sector, the IEA’s central STEPS sees renewables surging and overtaking coal as the largest source of power . By 2040, low-carbon sources would be supplying more than half of the world’s electricity needs – rising to 85% in the SDS.

(It is worth reiterating, however, that electricity accounts for only a fifth of final energy consumption today, a figure that rises to 24% by 2040 in the STEPS or 31% in the SDS. This is one of the many reasons why renewables alone cannot solve the climate challenge.)

Notably, this year’s STEPS has significantly increased the prospects for renewables, raising the solar total for 2040 by 23% and that for wind by 11%. This revision, adding 8% to the total for non-hydro renewables (red lines in the chart, below), sees them overtaking coal in the late 2030s.

The increase in expected renewable output is mostly absorbed by higher demand, meaning that generation from other sources is relatively unaffected. Carbon Brief analysis suggests the increase in 2040 demand relative to last year’s outlook is mainly due to higher demand in the base year 2018, which gets compounded by 2% annual growth.

Global electricity generation, by fuel, terawatt hours. Historical data and the STEPS from WEO 2019 are shown with solid lines while the WEO 2018 is shown with dashed lines. Source: IEA and last year’s edition. Chart by Carbon Brief using .

The WEO explains:

“As a result of continued cost reductions, solar PV becomes the most competitive source of electricity in 2020 in China and India, and largely closes the gap with other sources by 2030 in the European Union and United States. In the Stated Policies Scenario, the global average [levelised cost] of solar PV declines by about 50% from 2018 to 2030.”

It adds that cost declines for wind and solar are “bolstering the economic case for switching directly from coal to renewables”, rather than using gas as a “bridge” to low-carbon sources.

It also points to newly announced for offshore wind, in auctions around the EU and a softening of towards subsidy-free renewables.

The IEA recently published an of the prospects for offshore wind, which it says “has the technical potential to meet today’s electricity demand many times over” at costs set to be competitive with fossil fuels within a decade.

THREAD

Offshore wind has “near limitless” potential & is “set to be competitive with fossil fuels within the next decade”, as costs fall 60% by 2040.

Turbines will soon be as large as the Eiffel Tower.

Pretty amazing stuff from today’s new report.

— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans)

The IEA says there will be an increasing need to address challenges posed by variable wind and solar as they take hold of the electricity sector: “Policy makers and regulators will have to move fast to keep up with the pace of technological change and the rising need for flexible operation of power systems.”

Solar saga

Despite the large upwards revision in solar output in 2040 under this year’s STEPS, noted above, the IEA’s outlook for the technology remains relatively conservative compared with some others.

The IEA’s outlooks for solar have become something of a for critics of the agency’s work. It has made upwards revisions for solar capacity growth in each successive edition of the outlook, shown in shades of blue in the chart, below.

(Note that the chart shows additions net of retirements. These are initially negligible as the vast majority of solar capacity growth has been recent. The IEA assumes 298GW of solar retirements to 2040, suggesting it expects capacity to switch off after around 25 years. This means that actual additions and beyond, rather than apparently remaining relatively flat as in the net additions chart below.)

Annual net additions of solar capacity around the world, gigawatts. Historical data and an estimate for 2019 are shown in red while central outlooks from successive editions of the WEO are shown in shades of blue. The WEO 2019 STEPS is shown in black. Source: IEA and previous editions of the outlook. Chart by Carbon Brief using .

The IEA attributes these successive upwards revisions largely to shifts in government policy over time, in particular pointing to changes in China, which is the world’s largest market for solar.

Myth 2: underestimates renewables growth.
-False. Additions of renewables lead all sources in all scenarios. Track back and China’s policy changes accelerated global growth. Unfortunately, in the rest of the world, renewables are behind (!) the STEPS equivalent from WEO2009

— Brent Wanner (@WannerBrent)

The IEA argues that following slightly weaker solar growth in 2018, “a renewed acceleration in annual solar PV deployment, alongside enhanced efforts to ensure smooth integration of the resulting solar generation into power systems, is essential to reach climate targets and other sustainable development goals”.

The IEA’s relatively conservative outlook for solar appears to rest partly on its use of a cost of capital for all electricity generation technologies, set at 7-8% depending on each country’s stage of development.

This can have a very large impact on the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for a given project, as the IEA with reference to offshore wind. (Actual costs of capital for offshore wind in Europe have been closer to 4%, enough to cut its LCOE from around $140 per megawatt hour to $100/MWh.)

Another factor could be the IEA focus on system “value” rather than , illustrated by the “” metric it developed for the WEO 2018.

The agency says that cost reductions do not guarantee continued competitiveness “because the system value of solar PV tends to decline relative to the system average as its share of generation rises”.

This is because solar output is concentrated in the middle of the day, with additional capacity adding to supply and so partially eroding the price commanded by already-built solar panels.

Despite also considering these sorts of issues, some other outlooks are on solar capacity growth. Whereas the IEA’s STEPS has solar additions of less than 140GW each year by 2040, the  sees solar additions topping 300GW by then. This higher figure is in line with deployment in the IEA’s target-focused SDS.

BloombergNEF is also more bullish on wind capacity growth, with the result that its outlook has electricity output from coal falling by half in 2050, rather than holding steady as in the IEA’s STEPS.

Simon Evans was one of more than 250 external peer reviewers that read sections of the World Energy Outlook in draft form.

※ 全文及圖片詳見:()

作者

如果有一件事是重要的,如果能為孩子實現一個願望,那就是人類與大自然和諧共存。

於特有生物研究保育中心服務,小鳥和棲地是主要的研究對象。是龜毛的讀者,認為龜毛是探索世界的美德。

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環境資訊中心特約記者李育琴高雄報導

據陸媒報導,時序進入冬季,許多民眾燒煤取暖,但近期河北多地傳出民眾使用當地政府推廣的環保「清潔煤」取暖,導致一氧化碳中毒身亡或受傷。據相關報導,唐山市近期已有約6名村民因此原因死亡,另有數十人住院治療。

河北唐山市當地醫院的醫護人員表示,過去冬天也會有為數不多的村民因一氧化碳中毒住院治療,但今年人數特別多。據報導,這些「清潔煤」是由當地政政府部門指定的廠商提供,並按照人口數量,為各村莊制定相應的購買和使用的數量指標。

報導引述生產「潔淨煤」的廠商表示,這種煤炭燃燒後「沒煙沒味」,因此使用這種煤炭時,通風很重要。但當地民眾則質疑,政府沒有在推廣時一併協助安裝一氧化碳警報器,也沒有做好宣導工作,配套措施明顯不足。

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